![]() ![]() Creighton is an excellent six seed that will offer quite a bit of leverage in future rounds. I'm pretty much in line with the market here and am not going to get cute by picking an upset. Also, the Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, which lowers the number of possessions and could slightly increase the chances of an inferior team coming out on top.ĭOWNLOAD NOW No. With a 28% win probability, I think this is a great spot to go with an upset.įurman is a great shooting team that can attack Virginia's 3-point-funnel defense. Charleston attempts 3-point shots at the ninth-highest rate in the country, and San Diego State's 29% 3-point defense is the seventh-lowest in the nation.įor more betting analysis, head over to Charleston vs San Diego State Odds, Picks: Back the Aztecs. I'll take the favorite in SDSU, though, since I think we're getting more value in taking another upset in this region (see the game directly below this one). 12 seeds, so naturally 32% of brackets have Charleston pulling off the upset here. 12 CharlestonĮveryone loves taking the No. West Virginia is a 2.5-point favorite, but 51% of brackets are taking Maryland. ![]() 16 Texas A&M Corpus Christiįor more betting analysis, head over to Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama Odds, Picks: First-Half Play to Make. I walk through many scenarios below - although there's one key injury that could change things. Note: I will post my final bracket later on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised if nothing changes. 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks: Expert Predicts Every Game Let's get into the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket and my picks now that the field of 64 is set. You can click here to skip to a brief guide on how to use the builder.Įnough chatter. There will be times when I take a team with a negative leverage score, which I'll explain in my breakdown.Īnd finally, I created a downloadable March Madness Bracket Builder so you can tailor your own bracket while still using my leverage scores and general strategies in order to create a bracket that makes the most sense for your pool(s). I'm also factoring in the likelihood of an outcome. Now, that doesn't mean I'm blindly letting leverage score make my pick for every game. (my projected odds) – (% of users) = leverage The goal is to maximize our leverage score throughout building a bracket. With those two factors, I create a leverage score for every team to get a sense of who the market is either overrating or underrating. The average percentage of users who have that team advancing on ESPN and Yahoo!.My projected odds of that team advancing through each round based on results of 10,000 simulations run using my custom team ratings.There are two variables I consider before picking a team to advance in this NCAA Tournament bracket: Utah State & More.Įvery year, my goal with this NCAA bracket breakdown is to give users the tools and strategies necessary to create a winning NCAA Tournament March Madness bracket by walking through my decision-making process on every game of the tournament. While you're here, since the tournament has started, check out our best bets for the early Thursday slate in NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks: 5 Early Thursday Best Bets for Missouri vs. It's officially time for the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket to start being played out!Īnd if you waited until the last minute, we were here to help with my 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket picks, as I made my expert predictions for every game based on our projections, from the first round to the championship - now with links to each of our in-depth breakdowns and betting guides for every 2023 NCAA Tournament first-round game. UPDATE: For the most up-to-date 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and analysis, check out our 2023 NCAA Tournament: Second Round Odds, Expert Picks for Every Game Saturday. ![]()
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